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Bombing The Askariya Shrine Of Samarra: Collapse Of The Wave Function?

For the families of the people who have died, or the thousands more who have been maimed, or those who have been kidnapped, it probably does not matter much what sort of war is going on in Iraq.

The fact that it is a war and that it has brought them pain is enough.

But whether or not Iraq has a civil war is an important question.

The answer is that the violence there has all the makings of a civil war, worrying enough for Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, to warn against its dangers in a TV broadcast.

So far most of the fighting and killing in Iraq has been in the context of the US-led occupation.

But before Wednesday there were serious incidents involving big loss of life between Iraq's different communities.

Wider region

An all-out civil war would bring much worse violence.

It would destroy the chances of the elected central government which is being formed now at a very slow pace.

It could lead to the break-up of the country and more instability in the wider Middle East.

It is clear unfortunately that there are extremists who believe that they profit from a civil war and who are doing what they can to make it happen.

What is worrying is that direct attacks on holy shrines could multiply the level of violence outstripping the effect of killing humans.

The only good news in all of this is that there are responsible leaders who realise the dangers and who will now face a big test, especially if more shrines are attacked.

From the BBC.


At 9:55 AM, Blogger Ivan said...

"It could lead to the break-up of the country and more instability in the wider Middle East."

I'm not sure the latter follows from the former, if that is what they're saying.

An independent Kurdistan would probably do well to counter the weight Iran has in Iraq from the shiite majority.

Breaking regions such that there are only an insignificant minorities of differing ethnicities has made sense for a century.

Even modern western democracies have big troubles with ethnic minorities, so a fledgling democracy would benefit from the easiest societal makeup.

All that said, this shrine bombing could be very bad.

At 12:09 PM, Blogger Miguel said...

This terrorist violence is unnacceptable. We should invade Iraq and bring the country freedom and democracy.


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