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I'm not exactly an instapundit completist but I know that he likes to gloat about correct predictions that he's made and it also looks like he's not interested in predicting a victory for the incumbent. What he is doing is making a whole lot of predictions about what will happen "if" Kerry wins. I predict that he'll have plenty of oppurtunity to link back to them, and he knows it.


At 3:54 PM, Blogger Ivan said...

There is a difference between predicting an binary outcome and predicting a general effect. The latter is far more certain in this case.

I was watching 'The Beltway Boys' on Fox; with the typical two host left-right split. They both called it for Bush.

The only poll you need to look at the get the message is the months unchanging answer to "who will be tougher on terrorists?", where Bush wins 2-1. You can't really beat that.

At 4:01 PM, Blogger Miguel said...

Remember, many of those who-will-be-tougher-on-terrorists responders believe Saddam Hussein organized the attacks of September 11. He's nuetralized now so we're not at such great risk ;)

At 4:12 PM, Blogger Ivan said...

I doubt that those "many" could possibly tilt the poll to be 2-1.

Also, look here for a roundup of predictions.


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