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10.20.2004

The Election

So dedicated Drinktankers you will by now have noticed the two election themed graphs on the right of our blog. one points you to electoral-vote.com and the other goes to the Iowa winner takes all market graph. If you haven’t visited both of these great sites I encourage you to do so. Now the observant amongst you will note a disparity between the predictions of the two sites. In addition E-vote has a new predictive feature where the following assumptions are made:
  • Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it

  • The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)

  • If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)

  • The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)
Information on the rational for these assumptions are available on the main page today. Now I started this thread to discuss the relative predictive powers of the two sites.

I personally think that any decision I would make in terms of investment in the Iowa graph would either be intended for the short term, i.e. I would sell before the election, or would be directly influenced by what I read on e-vote. That said I think that makes the Iowa market a lagging indicator, unless this latest bush bump has something to do with insider knowledge of voter suppression or electronic voting malfunction. I think that anyone with enough money and political savvy to trade in that market realizes that national popular opinion polls are irrelevant when the race is so close.

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